Goalscorer Betting and Prop Markets in US and UK Sports Books
First or anytime goalscorer betting markets and various prop markets and prop bets are there to be exploited but only if you know what you’re doing….. Bryan N breaks it down
Where do the betting odds on the prop markets come from?
The first thing to realize is that the anytime goalscorer odds you see in the sportsbooks or on comparison sites etc. are more often than not compiled by a 3rd party provider rather than the traders at the individual firms. It’s not always the case, but many of the big name brands are supplied by B2B odds consultancy companies and this will be the case in UK soccer betting or in the US football betting or NBA or whatever markets are offering prop betting. We have more on this from one of the men that supplies the big firms with these anytime goal scorer prices. The sportsbook traders add their margins and adjust to cater for whatever type of clientele they have.
These margins in the goalscorer markets and prop betting markets in the US are applied mostly to the players at the top of the market – the big names, and then get gradually thinner as we go down the list. It’s usually wise to avoid the biggest names if you are looking to to profit long term in props or first or anytime goal scorer football betting. All the value is further down the prop betting markets.
How are anytime goalscorer odds and prop betting lines calculated?
First let me take you through where the goal scorer odds stem from. Supremacy, goals per minutes ratio and percentage weight of team goals are some of the main variables incorporated into the models and algorithms churning out goalscorer betting odds, or even touchdown betting odds in the NFL betting, and it’s the same for many prop betting markets in the US. Subjective opinion will also be used to adjust the prices in circumstances such as where significant team news or players changing positions are involved.
“It’s a case of using Bayesian Inference to take advantage of the US prop betting markets”
It’s the latter where we can find the real edge. You’ll need to be quick to act if some significant team news breaks, whether it’s soccer betting props or NFL prop markets (maybe LeBron James has come down with illness before a big basketball game in the NBA) to nab the best prices on possible replacements as books are quick to react, especially in the bigger leagues. There are plenty of situations though when certain players will be playing different roles which are not really picked up on by the masses.
One example of this is Doucoure for Everton in English Premier League Soccer under Rafa Benitez in season 2021/22.
In the EPL season previous, Doucoure sat deep in the midfield and didn’t see much action in the final third. Under Benitez he operated in a more forward role where he was urged to get into the box, with Allan playing the holding role. This resulted in a number of assists/goals/ shots on target for Doucoure early season, all at value prices way above his fair odds in various prop betting markets when playing that specific role.Predicting game patterns or taking notes from watching games can allow you to spot opportunities and angles for prop and derivative betting in both UK and US sports when no info will be available to odds compilers or layers. This is easier said than done and requires a lot of experience of watching the sports and studying the props, but it’s time worth investing. This is an example of using Bayesian Inference to take advantage of the prop betting markets. We can do it in Baseball, Ice Hockey (NHL) or any of the key popular American sports.
Where and when should I make prop bets on the goalscorer markets in football?
In terms of best prices on prop betting I suggest not betting until late. We tend to see the lesser names drift or at least stay the same closer to the kickoff. On the sports betting exchanges after the team news is released, we can see big drifts on players and if we are in the US, Prophet Exchange and SportTrade may offer prop betting markets in time.
Around 25 to 10 minutes before the game starts we are likely to see the best prices on the sports betting exchanges. If you’re betting with US sportsbooks make sure to line shop around for the best anytime goal scorer and other prop bet prices.
Tips for betting anytime goalscorer odds and US prop bets:
- Shop around for best anytime or first goalscorer odds, or various American prop bets.
- Use the US betting exchanges like SportTrade to see if there’s extra value
- Wait until closer kick off for goalscorer prop bets
- Try to target players who might be playing in unexpected, more forward roles
Remember that the bookmaker incorporates a decent margin on the best strikers and popular footballers so use OddsBoom Plus to locate the best goalscorer odds and prop betting prices.
