Expert Strategy Guide: How to Bet on Golf online

One of the sports that is becoming more and more popular year in year out in the betting space is golf. Online sports betting in the US has been legalised (or legalized US) and we are seeing a betting on golf boom on the PGA Tour and European Tour. Betting on Women’s golf is also increasing in popularity. The PGA Tour and betting operators such as Bet365 and BetMGM have struck deals with the likes of IMG arena meaning live data, odds and streaming feeds are growing all the time as live golf betting gets increasingly popular. The rise of fantasy golf in the US has seen the study of strokes gained stats and the course fit variable as the best indicator to predict player performance in golf. Strokes gained is a metric that measures player performance in each different area of their game relevant to the field – with accuracy which is not necessarily construed in the stats and round by round scores. This helps teach people how to bet on golf, with a big advantage to be garnered if you can quantify a concept known as course fit.

What is True Course Fit in Golf Betting?

Course fit (for dummies) in golf betting is basically how suitable each individual player is to different courses re their specific skill sets. 

For example: a 7,500 yard course with big undulating, tiered greens, generous fairways, lots of water and little rough: let’s say the Golf Club Of Houston. 

1. What players are going to excel there? 
2. Do you want a short hitter coming in with long irons? 
3. Maybe you want an average, accurate enough hitter that will be coming in high from approaches to tricky pin positions?

Russell Henley may not be the longest but he’s a regular at the very top of the approach stats and hits it high. In fact the 2021 golf PGA tour stats say he rivals Collin Morikawa in the iron and approach department. This means he can get at these pins on sectioned greens with run offs better than most of the field. The strokes he gains due to this over the tournament are significant. Henley is a winner at the Golf Club Of Houston.

The significance of course fit is lost on most and I include experienced golf traders and even some syndicates in that. There are no real precise numbers generally available for course fit and the ones that are out there are for the most part, terrible.  

“Our golf betting expert and author of “Angles & Edges” golf betting book has been using this moneyball style approach to course fit and golf betting for nearly 15 years. He developed the course fit profiling model which has been taken on board by some of the biggest players”

How do we win versus the Golf Betting Markets?

Attack something that’s not factored or not factored accurately into the prices – Course fit. The bookmaker model doesn’t need to build the course fit variable into the prices. Not yet anyway. True course fit is largely subjective and more sharp pro bettors are using it but it takes a long time and a lot of research to quantify accurately. Conditional probability is the key to beating all betting markets, never mind golf. Each week on tour you can essentially eliminate half of the field via the course conditions and set up. Of the other half, get rid of the  players out of form and focus on the players with what I call progressive form. 

If you want to study course fit in depth – essentially the golden goose in golf betting: Buy “Angles and Edges golf betting book”. 

How to Find an Edge in Golf Betting

Volume, volume and more volume. Less bets are not better. Sure we can be selective but the value out there each week in golf outrights is crazy. We don’t see too many 100/1 shots that should be 33/1 shots anymore but what we do see is a myriad of smaller edges. 0.5-1.5% edges in implied probability which equate to nice EV (expected value) on large odds. 

Example: how to win money betting on golf online

A 66/1 (1.49%) shot that should be 50s (1.96%) equates to just a 0.47% difference in implied probability. Let’s take a look at what this means in terms of expected value.

If a part time pro gambler or handicapper theoretically placed 51 wagers of £100 on Tiger Woods to win the Masters at Augusta at odds of 66/1, 51 times, in the long run he or she would expect a payout of £6700 on average every 51 bets. This is a profit of £1600 or 31.4% ROI%, or EV.

Let’s run the numbers through the expected value formula: 

(P of winning * profit) – (P of losing * stake) where…

Probability of winning: 0.0196078

Probability of losing: 0.9804

Stake: £100

Potential win: £6600 –>

0.0196078 x 6600

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0.9804 x 100

– > 129.41 – 98.04 = 31.4

In English this means for each of the £100 bets you make it is worth £31.40 in EV in the long run. It doesn’t matter if it wins or loses on this occasion. This is assuming he should be a 50/1 shot and not a 66/1 shot.

The way to win in golf betting is juicing as many of these +EV edge bets as you can. If you back 10-15 guys per tourney at 66s that should be 50s or 125s that should be 80s, quid’s in. What’s more, do it right with a savvy staking plan and you’ll reduce variance down to a very manageable degree. When I talk about volume I’m talking about amount of bets, not how much you stake – that’s turnover. If you were to make 600 of these bets over the season (6 or 7 per tourney) you’d make nearly 20k profit in theory at just £100 a pop. Variance dictates you’ll need more seasons than just 1 to realise your equity. That’s why I emphasise a strong staking plan. The more +EV bets you can make the better to reduce volatility and combat drawdowns..

Bet the Extra Places

If you’re backing EW even better. Ignore the people telling you to back 1/4 5 places as the payouts are more. It’s not 2009. What’s 25% of nothing? Nothing. Golf is so competitive now that finishing in the top 5 is tough. Every week you’ll hear people crying about their guys finishing 1 shot out of the places. This happened because you didn’t back enough places not because you were unlucky. Lowering that variance and volatility is the real key to successful and winning golf betting and that’s because there is so much combined juice available in these markets.

“X% of something is better than Y% of nothing”

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Beating the Margin in Online Golf Betting

Backing the favourites? Think again. If we compare the favourites in golf betting markets in the sportsbooks to the Betfair win price we are often looking at a theoretical margin of 1.5 – 4% applied to most of the guys (individually) at the front end of the market. Avoid the top of the market and getting rid of the no-hopers at the back of the pack and you’ve eliminated what looks like a big overround in the golf markets than can be priced to 160%. That’s how the bookmakers make their commission (or juice/vig). You’re now off more of a level playing field with prices that have no course fit or progressive form incorporated into them. Golf markets are the most fickle markets ever…. 

For example:

In the space of less than 2 months during the 2021 golf betting season Hank Lebioda was priced up at a range between 33s to 200s in not too dissimilar fields simply due to finishing position streaks (obvious form). Fluctuations like this happens all the time. Kevin Na was priced up at 28s at Summerlin as he’s anticipated to have some money flow in on him due to course history.  Immediate form and course history dictate the prices wherever they are originating from – be it odds compiling companies, traders or exchange seeders.

There are a number of ways to profitably bet on golf in the modern era and win money from golf betting…. 

Each Way Golf Betting Online

Each way golf betting is the simplest form of online golf betting. Basically we are making 2 bets: 1 win bet and 1 place bet. The advantage of EW betting in golf is that we’ll get much better prices on the place part than we would backing place only. A lot of value in the modern era of betting on golf online is in targeting the place part of the golf bet and it is a good strategy. With the win odds being tighter than previous years, the value has moved to the place part of the bet: if we can pick up small + EV on the win bet, or even neutral EV but get a great value bet on the place side, this is an efficient online golf betting strategy.

Are Tournament Matchups and 3 balls worth Betting on Golf?

Even at Pinnacle prices we generally see a few obvious clangers in the weekly golf betting markets. The bread and butter for many pro golf gamblers or golf handicappers is tournament match bets. I’d recommend trying to pick match bets where the underdog is slightly odds against and you feel he should actually be slight fave, rather than trying to find an edge with the odds-on players – the strike rate needed to make that a successful winning strategy is too high. There are many opportunities to find value if you shop around the different sportsbooks. It’s possible to have a long term strike rate in these types of tournament or round matchups circa 55-60% if you’re really good which equates to a ROI over 10% long term. The Masters and other golf majors bring out good opportunity and diverse sub and prop markets in golf betting. The Ryder Cup or WGC Matchplay also brings with it some good golf match betting potential.

1 day 3 balls are another area to target, especially day 1 with groups where there’s one out of form player that likely won’t feature. The trick is to know which players to write off whether it’s through lack of form, injury, tiredness from travel etc. We are talking 9% – 11% overround books for these markets at bookmakers such as BET365. This is fair enough and actually quite beatable if we shop around for best prices.

Sub and Derivative Golf Betting Markets

Top 10 betting and top 20 / 40 betting are golf prop markets which offer plenty of  opportunities to exploit but year on year we have to get more selective. These markets generally become liquid later on Tuesday through Wednesday. First round leader golf betting markets and Top Nationality markets are also very popular.

 If you really want to narrow down the field and prefer betting on some shorter prices – like a horse race – I find Top Nationality markets throw up some very good prices, and given they are derivative markets, they are exploitable at the soft bookmakers. 

First round leader betting

The 1st round leader market is the most popular sub market to bet in golf. The way to play here is to target the outsiders and keep an eye on the draw and the weather forecast. Earlier is usually better to avoid the wind and get the best of the greens, and the softer conditions.

Hole in 1 betting (ace)

Hole in one betting and prop betting is becoming more popular. Some golf props are highly exploitable given course conditions and set up. Augusta played nearly 2 shots harder from the 2020 November Masters to the 2021 Masters just a few months later in March. Firm and windy vs soft and benign. Advantage was taken by some savvy handicappers on first round scoring totals lines.

Betting On Woman’s Golf

If you are new to golf betting I would suggest thinking about making women’s golf a part of your portfolio. There is a lot of women’s golf televised nowadays and the betting markets are becoming more liquid with the likes of world number 1 Nelly Korda, Jin Young Ko and Lydia Ko bringing in the viewing figures. 

The standard of pricing will leave a lot of opportunities to devise a strong online golf betting strategy on ladies golf. The fact it’s on TV means we can really get that course fit and profiling edge and find some good betting angles. Re bookmaker pricing, not a whole lot of time will be spent on it so if you actually study by watching the play you could gain quite a significant edge. It’s also more aesthetically pleasing to watch than the men’s golf! For UK and Ireland viewers Leona Mcguire is a real one to watch in the coming years and she could even challenge Nelly Korda and Ko 😉 for world number 1 honours. Leona was immense in the Solheim Cup which is probably the biggest women’s golf tournament televised.

If you enjoyed this insight and would like to read more in depth analysis and a wide array of other topics on golf betting, such as how wind affects scoring, or more on hole in one probabilities, pick up a copy of Bryan Nicholson’s golf betting book: ” ANGLES & EDGES: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets ” (available in PDF and Paperback)

Tags: strategy and tips on how to bet on golf online, PGA Tour golf betting, Online golf betting and handicapping, European Tour golf tips, Ladies golf bets