Cricket Betting Tips, Advice and Strategy
Ed Hawkins (@CricketBetting) – author of Bookie Gambler Fixer Spy guests to let us know some ins and outs of betting on Cricket: From twenty20 Cricket betting to Indian Premier League (IPL) betting…
How profitable is Cricket Betting for the savvy Punter?
Cricket betting can be a rich source of profit for punters because of one word: opportunity. This is largely because, simply, the game never stops. It is always summer somewhere and there is no let-up in the calendar.
In addition, there are a plethora of formats these days. International matches – whether that be Tests, one-day internationals or Twenty20 – used to be considered the big paydays. But no longer. The rise in T20 franchise leagues, characterised by the Indian Premier League is unstoppable. The IPL is the biggest betting event in the world every year. Then there’s the Big Bash in Australia, the Caribbean Premier League, The Hundred in England and the soon-to-be-launched UAE T20 league. Similarly, T10 leagues could soon make an impact.
What it means is that the oddsmakers are stretched like never before. So the opportunities – that word again – for gamblers to make hay have never been greater. As long as you are prepared to put the time and effort in. And there are two side markets which offer terrific value consistently. These are the best way to bet on them.
Best Cricket Betting markets to bet on
1. Top runscorer – betting on who makes the most runs in a cricket match
This market does exactly what it says on the tin: we’re betting on an individual batter to score the most runs in his team’s innings. It is comfortably my favourite market to bet on in Cricket. There are ricks galore in the top runscorer cricket betting markets and a number of different approaches to make it pay. The first is time consuming but worth it. But also, mind-bogglingly simple. Given the weight of cricket that is played these days it is possible to work out win rates for individual batsmen across formats. Once you know how often a batter wins (and we need a decent study sample of at least 15 games), you can then peruse the odds for mistakes.
Let’s look at some examples:
In the recent IPL final, Shubmann Gill of Gujarat Titans and Jos Buttler of Rajasthan Royas were priced at 7/2 and 21/10 respectively. Gill had a win rate in the market in the last three tournaments (inclusive of 2022) of 28.6%. The bookmakers rated his implied probability of winning the market at 22.2%. A huge edge over a long study period.
Buttler’s win rate over the same period was 33.3%. The odds of 21/10 suggested he had a 32.2% chance. That may seem like a small slice in our favour, but consider that Buttler had topped seven times in 16 games and it was a crucial piece of evidence to get involved. Both batters copped.
When using such statistical analysis to find value, whatever the format, it is rare indeed that you do not find at least one batter to follow. There are exceptions, however. England’s Test match first-innings top-bat market is notorious for a dearth of value.
The win rates are not only useful to find players who are good value, but also point out the bad value. England’s Joe Root is consistently prohibitively short versus how often he wins. And there’s a theme: The players with the big reputations don’t have the big records on this cricket betting market. See Kane Williamson and Virat Kohli. That goes for any format.
The win-rate method, over a long study period, pays. I have been using it for almost five years now and it has revolutionised my approach to the market. If you wish, you can marry win rates with other factors. Previously, a popular pick method was to follow the batter who had form at the venue, recent form and form against the opposition. If you can get all the planets in line then go big. Just be aware you will be betting less often. If win rates are not for you then you apply that more ‘old-fashioned’ approach. It pays in the long run, too.
Betting on Twenty20 (T20) Cricket
In Twenty20 Cricket betting and other limited-overs cricket, it can also be wise to analyse batters against the individual bowlers. A site like cricmetric.com will provide match-ups between batters and bowlers so you can discover who has the Indian sign over an opponent or vice versa. Deploying these ’scientific’ methods means you can’t really fail.
The ‘order’ Cricket bet is another method. Bookmakers price top-bat markets, by and large, on where batters bat in the order. An opener in white-ball cricket will be the shortest for example. So knowledge of where batters bat is crucial. Oddsmakers are not always on top of this and I’ve lost count of the number of times an opener has been priced at massive odds because the bookies have not done their homework.
It doesn’t have to be an opener. Routinely you will find cricket betting odds in white-ball cricket for batters from Nos 3-5 priced as if they were betting at No 7 or No 8 simply. This method is more hit and miss than the aforementioned but you can get some truly whopping big price cricket bet winners.
” Cricket betting Oddsmakers are not always on top of this and I’ve lost count of the number of times an opener has been priced at massive odds because the bookies have not done their homework ”
Top Wicket-taker betting – which bowler will perform the best in the cricket match?
It probably won’t surprise you to discover that the same method deployed for finding top runscorer value can be used to find winners on the individual top wicket-taker market in an innings. There will be some who argue that this is a gold mine because whereas with the top runscorer market anyone in, say, the top eight could be a winner, with the bowlers you’re trying to find the best, or most likely, from four. Whatever the format. But the format is key.
We don’t bet the same way in a Cricket Test match as we would a T20. In Tests we favour bowlers who take the new ball. That is because when the ball is new it is harder and is more likely to move through the air or off the pitch than the old ball.
It’s why James Anderson is England’s all-time Test wicket-taker. He is guaranteed to be given the new ball to work his magic. Is that priced into the Cricket betting odds? Most of the time. Anderson is a modern great, of course, and the bookies don’t give anything away. But win rate comes to our aid. Look at the example of Tim Southee, the New Zealand quick. A seam and swing bowler, Southee is almost always first-choice with a new ball. In Test matches in the first-innings he is often priced at 3/1. On win rate we would have him down at 11/5.
Tell me some more Cricket Betting Angles
It should also be noted that in betting on the bowler market, often there are dead heats – Two or three bowlers sharing the honours with the same number of wickets. So finding a reason to get against skinny-priced favourites at around the 5/2 mark is wise.
In white-ball cricket, we’re looking to get with death bowlers, particularly in Twenty20 (T20) Cricket betting. That means the bowler who does their work at the end of an innings. Why? Not surprisingly, bowlers pick up cheap, easy wickets with batters taking far more risks. They don’t even actually have to bowl well to pick up wickets. So pairing death bowlers with win rates in white ball is crucial. And you’ll find some surprising results. For example, Jasprit Bumrah, the India pacer and superstar, is a stinker of a bet in both 50-over and 20.
Kagiso Rabada, the South African pacer, is another who is overrated in 50 over cricket betting. He is not a poor bowler, of course not, but he is poor value. It’s always important to make that distinction. Instead his team-mate Lungi Ngidi routinely rinses him on the top wicket-taker market and he is often priced in the Cricket betting markets from 10/3.
When a 50-over series, or T20 franchise league begins, it is worth compiling a list of the probable death bowlers for each team. In Indian Premier League (IPL) Cricket betting, for example, there can be standout value. Andre Russell for Kolkata Knight Riders is underrated because his medium pace looks innocuous. But he often is asked to bowl at the death and goes off as big as 4/1 on occasion.
Ed will be back with us with more tips and tricks for betting on Cricket….
